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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Military Studies: Journal for Strategy, Technology and Defense Sciences</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">3126-3666</issn>
      <issn pub-type="epub">3126-3674</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>SAPCRAA</publisher-name>
        <publisher-loc>Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina</publisher-loc>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1545</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">https://doi.org/10.65932/military-studies-2024-1-7</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Offset arrangements as an instrument of technology transfer in combat-system procurement: a comparative evaluation of the fiscal efficiency of direct and indirect compensation models</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Popov</surname>
            <given-names>Oleg</given-names>
          </name>
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5500-4271</contrib-id>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>30</day>
        <month>12</month>
        <year>2024</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>2</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      <fpage>113</fpage>
      <lpage>131</lpage>
      <self-uri xlink:href="https://www.sapcraa.com/article-preview/1545"/>
      <abstract>
        <p>Defence offsets — additional economic, industrial, and technological benefits that an arms-importing state extracts from a foreign original equipment manufacturer (OEM) as a condition of combat-system procurement — have, since the 1980s, become a near-universal feature of the international arms trade. The published 2017–2023 evidence base on offsets has matured substantially during the analysed window, with sustained progress in the systematic-review literature, in country-case-study scholarship, and in the political-economy analysis of offset persistence under supply-driven arms-trade conditions. Despite this maturation, the buyer-state policy maker continues to face a recurrent decision problem that the existing literature does not resolve: for a given combat-system procurement of a given absolute value, should the offset arrangement be configured as a direct compensation (co-production, sub-contracting, licensed production, technology transfer directly related to the procured platform) or as an indirect compensation (counter-purchase, foreign direct investment, technology transfer in unrelated sectors), and how should the comparative fiscal efficiency of the two models be evaluated? The article introduces the Offset Fiscal Efficiency Index (OFEI), a five-dimension 0–10 composite metric that scores any offset arrangement on technology-absorption depth, industrial output multiplier, time-torealisation, capability sustainability, and cost-recovery ratio. The OFEI is operationalised through a structured comparative workflow and applied to seven country cases — South Korea, Türkiye, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Poland — across the 2017–2023 window for both direct and indirect compensation models. Three hypotheses are tested: that the fiscal efficiency of direct offsets dominates that of indirect offsets across the OFEI dimensions for buyer states with sufficient absorptive capacity; that the comparative advantage of direct over indirect offsets is conditioned by the buyer state&apos;s pre-existing industrial base, with mid-tier industrial economies exhibiting the largest direct-over-indirect differential; and that the OFEI offers actionable comparative decision support that single-dimension fiscal-efficiency metrics cannot replicate. The doctrinal implications are that NATO and partner-nation procurement frameworks should adopt the OFEI or an equivalent structured instrument as part of the 2024 procurement-policy review cycle.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author">
        <kwd>defence offsets</kwd>
        <kwd>technology transfer</kwd>
        <kwd>direct offsets</kwd>
        <kwd>indirect offsets</kwd>
        <kwd>fiscal efficiency</kwd>
        <kwd>combat-system procurement</kwd>
        <kwd>OFEI</kwd>
        <kwd>defence industrial policy</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
